Bitcoin (BTC) Seasonal analysis October 24

Seasonal analysis of Bitcoin can provide valuable insights into recurring price patterns and trends across different time frames. Just like with traditional financial instruments, Bitcoin exhibits certain behaviors that may repeat annually, monthly, or even on shorter cycles, influenced by factors such as investor sentiment, market cycles, and macroeconomic events.

Bitcoin Analysis

Bitcoin shows a fascinating seasonal pattern. Because seasonality is an essential factor in any analysis, you should pay attention to these patterns.

A simple look at the seasonal chart quickly reveals that the fourth quarter has historically brought rising prices.

The simple chart does show the rise, but it does not show how good the quality of the seasonal pattern is. For that, we need a backtest.

For the backtest, we chose the period from 11 October to 12 November.

The key figures show nicely that we have an 83% hit rate for rising prices.

The details of the backtest show that prices always rise during this period, with the exception of 2022. The year 2017, in particular, saw an extremely strong price increase of 387%.

To get a more accurate picture of recent years, we exclude 2017 from the analysis.

The backtest shows that, apart from 2022, an average of 12% was generated.

We are therefore curious to see how Bitcoin performs this year.

If you have any questions or suggestions, please do not hesitate to contact us.

For more information and analysis, visit Seasonality.Ai.