Gold Seasonality Works – But Here’s When Not to Trade It

Just a few weeks ago, we highlighted a powerful seasonal long setup in Gold (XAU/USD) from April 1 to April 13 — and once again, seasonality delivered.

📈 Gold followed its seasonal path closely, moving higher within the expected time window — proof of how valuable recurring price patterns can be when applied with the right tools and timing.

A New Seasonal Trend Appears – But Caution Is Warranted

As we now enter mid-June, another seasonal setup is coming into view — this time with a bearish bias:

🗓️ Seasonal Window: April 16 – May 2
📉 Historical Edge: 80% win rate over the past 10 years
📊 Average Move: -1.58%

On paper, it is a solid short opportunity. But the current geopolitical environment tells a different story.

Why We Recommend Standing Aside This Time

Gold is a safe-haven asset, and right now, the world is anything but stable. Ongoing global tensions, monetary policy uncertainty, and volatile equity markets make shorting gold particularly risky.

Even though the seasonal pattern has held historically, context matters.

This is a textbook case where knowing when not to trade is just as important as identifying a strong pattern.

Let Seasonality Guide, Not Dictate

At Seasonality.ai, we empower traders to combine historical insights with current market conditions. Use our tools to confidently evaluate setups and know when discretion is the better part of strategy.

✅ Backtest and validate seasonal trends
✅ Evaluate geopolitical overlays
✅ Filter trades with high-probability potential
✅ Know when to step back and observe

Stay Ahead with Smarter Seasonality

Whether you’re capitalizing on a high-conviction pattern or avoiding unnecessary exposure, the power of seasonality lies in its discipline and data.

🔹 Explore current gold patterns on Seasonality.ai
🔹 Set alerts for optimal trade windows
🔹 Combine intraday and long-term trends for precision

Let your edge be informed, not emotional.

Here’s to better timing, smarter trades,
The Seasonality.ai Team

P.S. The best traders don’t wait for the perfect moment—they create it. Start leveraging seasonal trading today and see the difference for yourself.