Seasonal Pattern of the Week: 10 July 2023

Take advantage of unique profit opportunities through seasonal patterns in the market.

 

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Seasonal Pattern of the Week

This week's seasonal trend is the NZD. Due to seasonal factors, The New Zealand Dollar will likely be very weak in the coming weeks. Seasonal weakness is evident in the NZD against several currencies.

• NZD-USD

• Timespan: 11 Jul. - 25 Aug.

• NZD-JPY

• Timespan: 15 Jul. - 26 Aug.

• NZD-CHF

• Timespan: 10 Jul. - 25 Aug.        

• NZD-CAD

• Timespan: 10 Jul. - 07 Oct.

• GBP-NZD

• Timespan: 10 Jul. - 30 Sep.

• EUR-NZD

• Timespan: 11 Jul. - 24 Aug.

• AUD-NZD

• Timespan: 12 Jul. - 11 Oct.

We even have seasonal patterns with a hit rate of 100% in the past.

Let's look at the details.

NZD-USD

The chart shows the seasonal pattern. The marked area is the analyzed period.

The key figures of this trade are as follows:

The backtest shows the detailed performance of the last ten years.

NZD-JPY

The chart shows the seasonal pattern. The marked area is the analyzed period.

The key figures of this trade are as follows:

The backtest shows the detailed performance of the last ten years.

NZD-CHF

The chart shows the seasonal pattern. The marked area is the analyzed period.

The key figures of this trade are as follows:

The backtest shows the detailed performance of the last ten years.

NZD-CAD

The chart shows the seasonal pattern. The marked area is the analyzed period.

The key figures of this trade are as follows:

The backtest shows the detailed performance of the last ten years.

GBP-NZD

The chart shows the seasonal pattern. The marked area is the analyzed period.

The key figures of this trade are as follows:

The backtest shows the detailed performance of the last ten years.

EUR-NZD

The chart shows the seasonal pattern. The marked area is the analyzed period.

The key figures of this trade are as follows:

The backtest shows the detailed performance of the last ten years.

AUD-NZD

The chart shows the seasonal pattern. The marked area is the analyzed period.

The key figures of this trade are as follows:

The backtest shows the detailed performance of the last ten years.

Seasonal Summary

The seasonal weakness of the NZD is very pronounced, as it is seen against several currencies. The ratios and backtests of the different currency pairs are excellent and show a high hit rate.

Which currency pair will be the best choice in 2023 is up to you.

Understanding the Seasonal Pattern in NZD and Its Correlations

Seasonal patterns in trading are a powerful tool, allowing traders to uncover recurring trends that often defy short-term randomness. The NZD seasonal pattern stands out due to its reliable correlations with other currencies, offering a unique opportunity for strategic trading. Each year, the NZD exhibits distinct price movements against major pairs like USD, AUD, and EUR, influenced by factors such as economic cycles, trade flows, and geopolitical stability.

For traders and investors, recognizing this seasonal pattern in NZD provides a competitive edge. These recurring movements are not random—they are shaped by macroeconomic conditions like agricultural exports, which heavily influence New Zealand's economy, and global commodity trends. By identifying these consistent seasonal patterns, traders can time their entries and exits more precisely, minimizing risks and maximizing potential gains.

When analyzing NZD seasonal patterns, tools like the Seasonality Screener or Seasonality Analyser are invaluable. They help isolate these trends and validate the patterns over long historical periods, ensuring the highest reliability. For example, the NZD often strengthens in the fourth quarter, a trend tied to seasonal demand in export markets and the fiscal year-end in key trading regions. Combining this insight with fundamental analysis allows traders to capitalize on the pattern effectively.

How to Leverage Seasonal Patterns in NZD Trading

Capitalizing on the NZD seasonal pattern requires more than just recognizing recurring trends—it involves integrating this knowledge into a broader trading strategy. Here's a step-by-step approach to using seasonal patterns effectively:

1. Identify Historical Trends: Use tools like the Seasonality Analyser to observe the NZD's recurring price movements over the last 5–10 years. Look for consistency in the timing, duration, and magnitude of these patterns.
2. Analyze Correlations: The NZD seasonal pattern often aligns with trends in other currencies, such as AUD or CAD, and commodities like dairy or gold. Understanding these relationships can enhance the accuracy of your predictions.
3. Validate with Technical Indicators: Combine the seasonal pattern with technical indicators like moving averages, RSI, or Bollinger Bands to confirm entry and exit points. This step ensures that you’re aligning with current market conditions.
4. Incorporate Risk Management: While seasonal patterns are reliable, they’re not foolproof. Use stop-loss orders based on volatility or historical drawdowns to protect against unexpected deviations.
5. Monitor Key Events: Keep an eye on economic data releases, central bank decisions, and global commodity prices, as they can amplify or dampen seasonal movements.

For example, if historical data shows that the NZD/USD pair tends to strengthen in late October, traders could prepare by monitoring key economic indicators like New Zealand's trade balance or dairy auction results. Entering trades early in the trend and exiting at the seasonal peak ensures maximum profitability.

Seasonal patterns provide traders with a framework for anticipating market behavior, but combining them with robust analysis and risk management is essential. Start exploring these opportunities today to enhance your trading strategy and unlock consistent profits with the NZD seasonal pattern.

Profit from recurring patterns

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We help you find recurring patterns with an annual accuracy rate of over 90%. The Seasonality Screener and Event Screener show you the best periodic trends for stocks, ETFs, currencies (Forex), commodities, and futures. You can find profitable times to trade and invest with just a few clicks.

Our database contains hundreds of grand entry and exit points.

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