Weekly Seasonality Outlook: 04 September 2023

Discover unique profit opportunities through seasonal patterns and events in the stock market.

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Seasonal Market Outlook

The market overview shows you current trends, developments, and prospects of seasonal patterns in various asset classes.

Summary

Let's briefly look at the US dollar in the currency section.

Major Indices

Let's take a look at the major indices.

Seasonal Outlook: Indices

The seasonal patterns of the major indices for the next 30 days are mixed and somewhat hostile.

These seasonal patterns show the famous summer lull. From the beginning of August, there were mostly falling prices in recent years. September is the seasonally weakest month.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Election Seasonal Outlook (Post, Mid, Pre, Election): Indices

Let's take a look at the indices in the current pre-election year.

The development of the indices shows a volatile sideways trend!

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Indices

The 10-day intraday seasonality shows a positive picture.

Here is the same chart with the US indices. Nothing special. One sees a slightly positive development.

US Sectors

Let's take a look at the U.S. sectors.

Seasonal Outlook: Sectors

Unlike the indices, the US sectors show a more sideway seasonal pattern.

Only Real Estate and communication look seasonally weak.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Sectors

The seasonal 10-day patterns for the US sectors are positive.

Currencies

Let's take a look at the currencies.

Seasonal Outlook: Currencies

The 30-day seasonality for FX futures is positive.

All futures are seasonally positive, showing weakness in the US dollar. With the current (short-term) expectation that US interest rates could rise again in November with a probability of 50%, US dollar weakness is less likely.

However, the dollar should not be appreciated further in the longer term. The reason is that the Fed cannot let interest rates rise much further (1-2 basis points at most) because otherwise, the U.S. would be unable to pay its debts.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Currencies

The 10-day seasonal trend for currency forwards shows a positive picture. The GBP shows the most robust seasonal movement.

Crypto

Let's take a look at the crypto.

Seasonal Outlook: Crypto

The seasonal pattern for the next 30 days for the major cryptocurrencies shows a mixed picture. Bitcoin, in particular, offers a robust seasonal pattern from Mid-September.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Crypto

The seasonal 10-day trend for cryptocurrencies shows a volatile picture.

Commodities

Let's take a look at the commodities.

Seasonal Outlook: Commodities

The seasonal pattern for the next 30 days shows a mixed picture for commodities.

The seasonal pattern of copper and palladium is positive. Silver and gold have a negative seasonal pattern.

Commodities should pick up again if the dollar goes through its seasonal weakness.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Commodities

The seasonal 10-day intraday pattern shows a positive picture.

Interesting seasonal pattern

What are the opportunities based on seasonal solid patterns?

The Gold seasonal pattern shows a substantial price decrease.

Pre-Election Years

Profit from recurring patterns.

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